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DTSTART;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20251212T143000
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UID:10000123-1765549800-1765562400@www.trr352.de
SUMMARY:Probability Colloquium Augsburg-Munich
DESCRIPTION:Schedule:\n\n14:30    Welcome\n15:00    Talk by   Nicos Georgiou (Sussex)\n16:00    Coffee break\n16:30    Talk by  Christian Kühn (TU Munich)\n18:00    Option for common dinner\n\n  \n\nTitles and abstracts:\nNicos Georgiou: Mean-field limit and parameter estimation for contagion dynamics on higher-order structures \nClassical models of contagion epidemics have graph based representations where the nodes represent the population and infections occur from an infected individual to a susceptible individual via a network link between them. At the same time\, healing mechanisms try to fight the epidemic at node level. The simple descriptions of these representations also underscore their limitations\, since the propagation of contagions in complex systems often involves repeated or simultaneous stimuli that individuals receive from their social contacts (such as their work or household). One may mechanistically encode these non-linear effects into contagion models by considering interactions that go beyond simple pairwise connections\, by using hypergraphs rather than graphs. In this talk we will see the role higher-order interactions can play in the behaviour of the model when a rigorous mean-field can be obtained. Furthermore\, we will discuss some inference techniques for the parameters of the epidemic (rates of infection) when only partial information on the type of infection is available and with only a single realisation of the epidemic curve as a datum. \n  \nChristian Kühn: Epidemic Dynamics: From Simple Models to Complex Systems \nIn this talk\, I am going to give an overview of various techniques to analyze contact processes and their nonlinear dynamics with a focus on moment-based methods. The main results will be (a) the existence of periodic motion in systems with waning immunity\, (b) warning signs for outbreaks in adaptive epidemic models with social distancing and quarantining\, (c) the influence of transport in multiplex networks\, and (d) the influence of multiscale group interactions to prevent epidemics. We shall also see how to locally justify moment closure expansions of the dynamics.
URL:https://www.trr352.de/event/probability-colloquium-augsburg-munich-2/
LOCATION:University of Augsburg\, Room 2004 (L1)\, Universitätsstraße 14\, Augsburg\, 86159
CATEGORIES:Colloquia
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DTSTART;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20260710T000000
DTEND;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20260710T235959
DTSTAMP:20260916T233220
CREATED:20260626T074059Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20260626T074117Z
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SUMMARY:Probability Colloquium Augsburg-Munich
DESCRIPTION:Speakers:  \n  \n\n Maria Deijfen\n Remco van der Hofstad\n\n  \nSchedule: \n  \n14:30    Welcome\n15:00    Talk Maria Deijfen\n16:00    Refreshment break\n16:30    Talk Remco van der Hofstad\n18:30    Option for common dinner\n\n  \n\n\nTitles and abstracts:\n  \nMia Deijfen: Into space – and back again! \nAbstract: The configuration model is a standard model for generating a random graph with a prescribed degree distribution. I will describe attempts to analyze a spatial version of the model\, and ongoing work to revert the spatial model to the non-spatial setting. \n  \nRemco van der Hofstad: The number and structure of connected graphs with a fixed degree sequence \nWe study connected graphs with a fixed degree sequence\, in the sparse setting where the number of edges grows linearly in the number of vertices. Using the relation to the configuration model\, we identify the number of such connected graphs up to a subexponential order. We do this by viewing a connected graph with a given degree distribution as the realization of the giant component in a larger configuration model\, and carefully choosing the degree distribution of the larger graph so that it is likely that its giant component has the required degree distribution. To ensure that the connected graph has exactly the correct degrees\, we use a switching argument. We further identify the local structure of a uniform random graph with prescribed degrees. This is joint work with Sasha Bell and Serte Donderwinkel.
URL:https://www.trr352.de/event/probability-colloquium-augsburg-munich/
LOCATION:University of Augsburg\, Room 2004 (L1)\, Universitätsstraße 14\, Augsburg\, 86159
CATEGORIES:Colloquia
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